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By Arlene Winfrey, Guymon, Oklahoma.

The June 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed the effects of trade and weather on livestock in the United States.

Livestock, poultry and dairy

Higher and heavier broiler production is expected to offset lower forecasted beef, pork and turkey production, according to the report. The decline in beef production is due to lower steer and heifer slaughter in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, pork production is forecasted lower from last month just due to slower slaughter pace than expected.

With higher feed costs, producers are expected to throttle back livestock and poultry production in response.

“The beef production forecast is reduced on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter as incentives to add weight on pasture slows the pace of feedlot placements,” the report stated.

The report forecasted higher beef imports and reduced exports. Mexico’s roll back of tariffs on U.S. pork products late in May has pork exports forecasted to rise.

“For 2019 the cattle, hog, and broiler price forecasts are reduced from last month, reflecting current price weakness,” the report stated.

Higher feed costs are also expected to affect the dairy industry, further weakening producer margins and limiting the number of cows they can add to herds and the pounds of milk produced per cow next year. Weaker nonfat dry milk exports is expected to lower the skim-solids basis export forecast. Lactose exports are expected to be affected by the additional tariffs imposed by China, resulting in the 2020 skim-solids basis export forecast to be lowered.

The 2019 cheese and whey price forecasts are down from the previous month, while NDM and butter price forecasts rose.

“The all milk price forecast is reduced to $18 per hundredweight. For 2019, but is raised to $18.90 per cwt for 2020,” the report stated.

To read the full report, visit: www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0619.pdf.

Jennifer M. Latzke can be reached at 620-227-1807 or jlatzke@hpj.com.

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