Tierney models foresee more corn, soybeans

Tierney's analysis of weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture crop condition ratings places national corn yields at 147.3 bushels per acre--1.2 more than last week's projection. That represents a climb of four bushels during the past month and compares with current USDA yield estimates of 137 bushels.

Tierney said yield prospects declined in the Plains and eastern corn belt last week, but improved by an even greater margin in the Southeast and western corn belt.

He notes that record early plantings continue to favor corn crop

conditions, boosting yield projections more than 7 bushels over what would have otherwise been expected with a "normal" seeding schedule.

Tierney's U.S. corn yield model contains a standard error of plus or minus nine bushels.

Tierney's computer model implies national average soybean yields of 41.8 bushels per acre, up 0.1 from one week ago and 1.8 above the latest USDA yield estimate.

Soybean crop conditions declined in the Plains and eastern corn belt last week, were unchanged in the Delta and higher in the Southeast and western corn belt.

Tierney said at the current pace of development, the U.S. soybean crop should bloom about one week earlier than normal.

His soybean yield model contains a standard statistical error of plus/minus three bushels.

The effects of drought on the crop in Montana are depressing spring wheat conditions, lowering the U.S. outlook by a full one bushel per acre from last week.

Tierney's projection that U.S. spring wheat yields will average 34.6 bushels per acre remains 1.0 higher than that forecast by USDA, though. The model contains a standard statistical error of plus/minus 3.3 bushels.

Tierney's forecast of winter wheat yields declined as well--by 0.7 bushel in soft red winter wheat producing areas--and by 0.1 in the hard red winter and soft white wheat belts.