Global warming might rescue EU winter grain

In the past, the limit in the United Kingdom for planting winter barley and oats and oilseed crops like rapeseed was early November. This year, because of excessive rains, less than 70% of intended plantings have been done in most areas, and in parts of northern England the rate is less than 50%--and some of these plantings may have been washed away amid this week's widespread floods.

Some crop analysts said many farmers whose crops are not yet sown or must be resown because of the weather are probably resigned to waiting until spring. But the HGCA economist said "if winters have been like they have been recently, most farmers figure they have a few weeks to get the winter barley in. With global warming they find they can get away with sowing crops a bit later."

Even if some farmers think they have more time, however, harvesting of sugar beets and potatoes--which on many farms are rotated with grains--is behind schedule because of the rains, and this still must be done before any grain planting can begin. Thus, time may run out anyway.

The HGCA economist suggested farmers who do plant winter grain so late would be taking a gamble. Despite their expectations, he said, "It might be a cold winter."