HAMBURG (B)--Bans on meat and bone meal (MBM) animal feeds in Germany, France and possibly other European Union states "will sharply raise demand for vegetable proteins, with soybean meal apparently the major beneficiary," Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World said Tuesday. This will help raise U.S. soymeal exports and cut U.S. soybean stocks as of end-February.
"Restrictions on the usage of MBM in several E.U. member countries increases the demand for other protein sources," it said. "These are feed grains and pulses but primarily oilmeals. The production of meats in the European Union is expected to remain largely unchanged in 2000-01. The BSE scare is likely to curb beef output but probably favors poultry."
E.U. consumption of the 12 main oilmeals will rise to 52.22 million tons in the October 2000-September 2001 period from 50.53 million tons in 1999-2000, it said.
"The lion's share of this increase is likely to be on account of soya meal," the newsletter said. "Demand of this in the European Union is pegged at 28.30 million tons in 2000-01, up by 6% from last season. This is likely to be supplied by an increasing E.U. crush of imported soybeans and also by a pickup in soymeal imports to 17.10 million tons (verses 16.22 million)."
"The main sources for soybeans and soya meal are South America and the United States. Higher U.S. exports of soybeans and soybean meal from now until February will further cut U.S. soybean stocks as of end February."
"Thereafter, the main source for E.U. requirements of soybeans and soya meal will be South America where a bumper crop is necessary to satisfy increased world demand," it added.