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Determine an expected yield per acre under normal weather conditions, using an Olympic average that eliminates the highest and lowest yields.

Determine a realistic range for futures prices under three alternate national and global weather scenarios: Average, Adverse and Favorable.


Divide the potential price range into an upper, middle and lower third.

For futures pricing targets, assume the middle third is the most likely range under a normal growing season here and abroad. Unless you have reason to believe the market is beginning to factor in an adverse growing season.


Pick an initial price point in the middle of the middle third price range in a selected weather scenario.

Adopt a scale-up approach to pricing in a bull market. Sell larger and larger amounts as the market moves higher from the initial pricing point.


Purchase a deep out-of-the-money courage call at a strike price 10 percent above the top sales target.


If a bear market is underway, adopt a scale-down approach to pricing.


Consider writing covered calls at the upper price targets if the wheat begins to fall.