Determine an expected yield per acre under normal weather conditions, using an Olympic average that eliminates the highest and lowest yields.
Determine a realistic range for futures prices under three alternate national and global weather scenarios: Average, Adverse and Favorable.
For futures pricing targets, assume the middle third is the most likely range under a normal growing season here and abroad. Unless you have reason to believe the market is beginning to factor in an adverse growing season.
Adopt a scale-up approach to pricing in a bull market. Sell larger and larger amounts as the market moves higher from the initial pricing point.