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Cellulosic ethanol may not materialize"Someday" we will convert sea water into hydrogen to fuel our cars. "Someday" we will harvest algae to feed, clothe and fuel our country. "Someday" we will produce ethanol from cellulose. Well, there is a big difference in "someday" and "today" in all these forward-thinking food and fuel sources. I love to dream and strongly support research to discover new products and expanded use of our basic resources, but there are times when we need to come back to reality just to know where we really stand. The first report that challenges the feasibility of converting non-grain plant material into ethanol at a competitive price has just surfaced at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and it comes as a shock that this highly touted alternative to corn-based ethanol is not tracking toward commercialization. It has even caused denial by ethanol advocates who suggest that it's an attempt by "Big Oil" to derail expanded ethanol production. Since hearing of cellulosic ethanol around 2005, I have hoped it had a chance to come online as an addition to ethanol derived from corn. I interviewed researchers who said: "It will be five years before commercial production can begin." My suspicions rose when they said "five years" every year. The science may be proceeding, but the promise seemed to be more of a cover to get the public's mind off the "food versus fuel" debate that began in 2008. Whether it was intentional or just an opportunity to redirect the conversation, cellulosic ethanol has taken on a large role in the agenda of renewable fuels' advocates. Research money and production incentives may have been the real goal of those who actively embraced it. The realization and admission of the difficulty of converting biomass into alcohol is a good thing. The worst scenario is to create a fantasy world similar to the tale of the emperor's new clothes, which were so pure that fools could not see them. We have been so desirous of alternative energy supplies that this pathway to massive production was comforting even though everyone had some hidden doubt about its ultimate success. Congress has pumped hundreds of millions into cellulosic research, but many of the credits will run out at the end of 2012 so the industry already had a mandate to deliver or die. There are actually two aspects to the cellulosic ethanol equation that remain fascinating. The first is conversion of fibrous materials to sugar. There are enzymes that will do so, but the rate appears to be slow and the cost is high. The other side is the volume of plant material needed to fuel a production facility. A research plant, built by Poet LLC in Emmetsburg, Iowa, is the closest to commercialization. To be equivalent to a corn-based ethanol facility, it will have to digest 770 tons of plant materials each day. The logistics of hauling that much material to a central point are very challenging. Cobs and stalks don't compact and convey like corn, so the cost of transport and storage alone would make it more expensive to produce ethanol. In this technology debate, we should not underestimate the power of suggestions made by American presidents. Jimmy Carter embargoed corn that could have been sold to the Soviet Union and told the public that it would be converted into ethanol. That was the moment when the bio-based industrial fuel industry began. When George W. Bush said we should use switchgrass as a biofuel, he spawned research into cellulosic ethanol production. As it turns out, burning switchgrass as a replacement for coal or natural gas in power plants seems to be its most efficient usage. Bush also touted hydrogen fuel cells for automobiles and said in another State of the Union speech that children born today (2006) would be driving cars powered by hydrogen. Does that mean we'll have the cars in 16 years (2022) or before they die (2086)? We should consider that ethanol made from corn has been a remarkable success. Since its humble beginnings and incredible opposition from the petroleum industry, ethanol now makes up 10 percent of our total liquid fuel supply. The production of corn has gone up sharply and the conversion rate of corn to ethanol has also risen. Farm payments have been realigned with farmers realizing their income from the marketplace and ethanol refiners and blenders getting the tax incentives to continue expanding production. The future is uncertain. There is no way of knowing what pathways we will follow toward our goals of energy self-sufficiency, cleaner air and environmental responsibility. Alternative energy has been the buzzword since the oil embargo of 1973, and we have yet to answer most of the pressing questions. The industrial nations reiterated their goal of reducing petroleum subsidies on the medium term when they met recently in Seoul, South Korea. This means that there is some hope that bio-energy can replace fossil fuels but not immediately. It shows we are looking for a better tomorrow and a bit more realistic about it than we were yesterday. Editor's Note: Ken Root is an independent agricultural journalist. He was named the 2009 Farm Broadcaster of the Year and was the 2008 winner of the Oscar in Agriculture. He is an Oklahoma native and an experienced print, radio and television journalist. He has spent the last five years as Lead Farm Broadcaster at WHO Radio in¬ Des Moines, Iowa. He and his wife Gail have two adult children and two grandchildren.
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