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AdvertisementCrop scouting In spaceThe European Space Agency has just launched a new satellite that goes by four letters: SMOS. It stands for soil moisture and ocean salinity. The simplicity of the name belies the complexity of the science that will be required to measure both. If agronomists and meteorologists greatest hopes are realized, the knowledge they will attain from this and future sensors can change the farmer's world. In the Midwest, we know it is wet but we didn't know that it would be this wet for two years and that the rainfall last summer, which made the crops grow, would also become a hindrance as growers harvest in mud and try to dry damaged grain. Could science help anticipate the weather and measure its effects on the land worldwide? What if the measuring of soil moisture from a space-based platform could provide data that would project yields so that Asia, South America, Africa, Europe and Australia were tallied together with our production in North America? The U.S. has a government based crop survey system that shows historical accuracy with about a two-week lag time. What if that quality of data could be gathered from every major crop-producing region and transmitted to subscribers in real time? It would improve decision-making and take many speculative swings out of the marketplace. It would also be the ultimate "big brother" if you are paranoid about such things. Moving to the ocean sensor on the SMOS satellite--it is proposed to measure the currents by their signature salinity and serve as a tool for forecasting weather. As much as we enjoy moving graphics and colored maps, weather forecasting remains limited. Extending the forecast decreases its accuracy. A tornado bearing down on Union City, Okla., can be forecast in intensity and arrival time, but rainfall amounts and coverage, one week forward, are mostly inaccurate. Links between ocean temperatures off South America and weather in the American Midwest have already been established, along with many other patterns. If SMOS can take this correlation forward, what might be a future outcome? How about knowing, with a high degree of probability, how much rain will fall during an entire growing season? Imagine utilizing that data to determine the crop maturity of seed to be planted, on a certain date, with the likelihood it would pollinate and mature at the most opportune time. Perhaps a grower would see a forecast of a combination of years like 2008 and 2009 and omit a crop in North America to focus on more production from a dryer region, like Argentina. This is not science fiction. It is science forward. If something were possible in our minds, why would it not be achievable in the real world? "Man can accomplish anything he sets his mind to," according to the Bible. We can't be held back by what scares us or gives too much information to fit into our current paradigm. The problem with science, like SMOS, is that it is expensive and it lags. An agronomist in Michigan in the mid-1990s proposed the idea for the satellite. NASA cut the program due to funding priorities. The Europeans picked it up; but the technology of the day has to be built into a satellite and launched. By the time it goes up, the instruments on board will probably be out of date. The data collected by the device, during its working life, is extremely valuable but may not be translated into commercial application for several years. The program has to compete with other priorities; so, a promising lead may be cut short because a new satellite can't be launched. Heaven forbid that everything goes and the rocket blows up. We may be like Columbus: "We don't know where we are going but we'll get there." When we do, we have to be disciplined enough to use the knowledge for the greater good. Food production has to be the highest priority for the people of this earth. Nothing else matters when you are hungry. "We are nine meals from revolution," according to Senator Charles Grassley. We know population will grow for several more generations. Power and influence are swinging to those countries that have the largest population (China and India) and away from those who have the food production technology and arable land (North America, South America and Europe). So several uncomfortable outcomes can be put forth as to what would happen if population outstripped production. We see ourselves as sophisticated, but so did every other society at every moment of their progress. We have built a base from which to work. That is about the best we can say about ourselves. Where we go from here can range from abstract to practical. Science has to work both sides and provide options to all who draw from it. A single satellite transmitting data to a curious world will not bring larger harvests and greater security, or will it? Editor's Note: This is Ken Root's 35th year as an agricultural reporter. He grew up on a small farm in central Oklahoma and started his career as a vocational agriculture teacher. He worked in Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri as a broadcaster and was the original host of AgriTalk. He has also been the executive director of the National AgriChemical Retailers Association in Washington, D.C. and the National Association of Farm Broadcasters in Kansas City. Ken is now the lead farm broadcaster at WHO and WMT Radio based in Des Moines, Iowa. He has been a columnist for HPJ and Midwest Ag Journal for eight years. Advertisement
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