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See, we aren't so darned idiotic, after all!By Larry Dreiling A few years ago, the editorial office here at High Plains Journal got a letter from a reader saying he thought people who participate on the Wheat Quality Council's annual winter tours were, in his words, a bunch of idiots. As a long-time participant, I replied, "Sure, I am." I'm proud of being part of these idiots. Excuse me for gloating, but we idiots got it pretty much right this year. Well, so far, at least. The tour participants estimated the 2009 Kansas wheat crop to yield 40.8 bushels per acre compared to 43.3 bushels on the same routes in 2008. This compares to the estimate of 40 bushels per acre estimated May 12 by the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service. While the WQC scouts estimated the wheat crop at 333.3 million bushels, KASS has estimated the crop at 340 million bushels from 9 million planted acres and 8.5 million harvested acres. "I think our scouts did a great job in estimating the crop," said Ben Handcock, WQC executive vice president. "I said at the end of the tour the numbers were right on and they were accurate to within eight-tenths of a bushel. Pretty good." The crop estimate for the WQC tour is based on the guesses of 52 participants who joined a pool for their guesses. I put my guess at 317 million bushels. That's why I qualify my big gloat with that "so far." The figures could change at any time. We could still have a big freeze or extensive hail damage. That's why my estimate is a little gloomier than the average. I have to say, though, that in a lot of places, we all saw good wheat where just a few weeks earlier we knew we likely would not have seen any wheat worth talking about. Add to that how Handcock and KASS officials have put together a formula where any idiot with a ruler and a calculator can figure out a crop yield. Eldon Theissen, who recently retired as Kansas state agricultural statistician, initially developed the formula. It's been subsequently tweaked by his successor, Glenda Shepler. As time has passed, the formula has become really good at making these predictions. When you get down to it, the WQC formula is darned close to the KASS formula, so the numbers ought to be close. If you'd like to learn the formula, you have to go on the tour. Go to www.wheatqualitycouncil.org to find out how. I'm still inviting that dude who called us idiots (he knows who he is) to come out on tour next year. Heck, it's so easy, even he could do the math. Larry Dreiling can be reached by phone at 785-628-1117 or by e-mail at ldreiling@aol.com.
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