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USDA report: Soybean acres expected to increase, other crops decreaseBy Jennifer Bremer
Even though it's only March and planting intentions may change, farmers plan to plant more acres of soybeans and fewer acres of corn for 2009. The USDA released its March report of spring planting intentions March 31, showing soybean producers intending to plant 76 million acres in 2009, up slightly from last year. Corn is expected to be at 85 million acres, down 1 percent. Soybean growers in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, North Dakota, Mississippi, North Carolina and Ohio all intend to increase acreage by 100,000 acres from 2008. John Heisdorffer, president of the Iowa Soybean Association, was surprised by the report, as was most of the trade. Considering the high cost of inputs, most had expected the national soybean acres to be higher. "Estimated acreage numbers have been moving around in a fairly wide range," Heisdorffer said. "This shows farmers are going to wait until the very last, in making their final planting decisions. Many factors will be at play, including grain prices, fertilizer prices and weather. "I would anticipate that the markets will attempt to send a signal to encourage more soybeans," he added. "We remain focused on the fact that, long-term, the world needs more soybeans, and the U.S. is in the best position to provide them and does so with consistent quality and consistent availability." With this increase in soybean acres, it would be the largest soybean crop planted in history. Corn growers intend on planting 1 percent fewer acres than last year, as lower corn prices and unstable input costs are discouraging some growers from planting corn. If realized, this will still be the third largest acreage since 1949, behind 2007 and 2008. Expected acreage is down from last year in many states; however, producers in the 10 major corn producing states--Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin--collectively intend to plant 66.3 million acres, up slightly from the 66.1 million acres planted last year. According to a release from the Iowa Corn Grower's Association, the most important thing to remember about this report is that these are intentions and may change. The only year in the past five years when Iowa's actual planted acres have come in at the planting intentions level was 2005. In every other year, Iowa farmers have ultimately planted more than the March report indicated--in 2007 the increase was 2.2 percent. The report also showed a decrease of 7 percent in all planted acres of wheat as compared to 2008. The 2009 winter wheat planted area of 42.9 million acres is 7 percent below last year but up 2 percent from the previous estimate. The area planted to spring wheat for 2009 is expected to total 13.3 million acres, down 6 percent from 2008. All cotton plantings for 2009 are expected to total 8.81 million acres, according to the report. This would be 7 percent below last year and the fewest acres planted since 1983. "Total acreage for the four major crops to be planted in 2009--corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton--is estimated to be down by 5.9 million acres or 2.5 percent less than actual plantings in 2008," said Terry Francl, senior economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation. "Most of the reduction in total estimated crop acreage for 2009 can be attributed to reduction in wheat, which is down 4.5 million acres," Francl said. He also noted lower crop prices and higher costs for inputs, including fertilizer and seed, are drivers behind the lower overall acreage estimates for 2009. Although the planting intentions report provides useful projections, historically, growers adjust their planting mix in response to spring weather, Francl said. In prior years, final planted corn versus soybean acreage has varied by up to 3 million acres, compared to the March 1 estimate. Except for soybeans, the prospective plantings figures tracked fairly closely to pre-report, mid-point acreage estimates; and the accompanying grain stocks report "held no surprises," according to Francl. "On balance, the reports imply that we'll see more balanced supply and demand conditions for grains and oilseeds in 2009-2010 compared to 2008-2009," he concluded. Jennifer Bremer can be reached by phone at 515-833-2120 or by e-mail at jbremer@hpj.com.
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