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Just a scoop full(Oct. 15)--Frustrating would be a word that comes to mind when you think about the cattle market now. But that is not the only industry that is suffering. If you are replacing those fat cattle or feeders with calves then you are basically trading cheap cattle for other cheap cattle. And some of those calves will cost several dollars per hundred less than those fats or feeders. I am basically not that depressed over the cattle market. I do feel that we have a period here, if we have cattle for sale, that you are not going to like. That period could be very depressed for a couple of months or perhaps six months or longer. After that time for most cattlemen, if they are diversified, they will have some of these cheaper cattle in their operation. Then even if we have never gotten back to these higher prices it will not be as bad, as our breakevens will be lower. Feed costs have cheapened a lot along with fuel costs. For the stocker operator putting cattle on wheat--to me the potential for profit looks very good. Every time cattle get cheaper you have a lot who are too nervous to participate. Thus, you have a lot less competition. Some bankers also get nervous enough that they keep cattlemen from being in the market. Again, leaving less competition. I realize this economy shake-up is new to a lot of us. And I am definitely not taking it lightly. But I also look back and realize the big money made on cattle has often been when they bought when others were depressed. Cattle falling in the early 70s was one of those times and also the dairy buyout was another. I'm not trying to say that this turn of cattle will make you a lot of money. But I feel there will be a turn somewhere between now and the next two or three turns of cattle that will make a lot of money. Keep in mind you should use your own judgment because I am most generally an optimist. But I also refuse to dwell on my mistakes and, instead, concentrate on the potential for profit that often lays just around the corner. Editor's Note: Jerry Nine, Woodward, Okla., is a lifetime cattleman who grew up on his family's ranch near Laverne, Okla. 10/27/08 Date: 10/22/08
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