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Wheat tour offers higher averageBy Larry Dreiling
Kansas could see a large wheat crop in 2008 despite a 500,000-acre decrease in planted acreage. That's the estimate of participants on the 51st annual hard winter wheat evaluation tour conducted May 5 to 8 by the Wheat Quality Council (WQC). The calculated average for the tour was 43.3 bushels per acre compared to 41 bushels one year ago on the same routes. Planted acreage for the 2008 crop is estimated at 9.9 million acres, compared with 10.4 million acres the year before. The scouts use a formula provided by the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service (KASS) to arrive at their calculated average. The formula is based on a 10-year rolling average and changes slightly from year to year. The estimated production for the entire crop by 48 participants who joined the annual $1.00 pool is 379.1 million bushels. On May 9, the official KASS estimate was 357.2 million bushels. The official KASS survey was performed about a week ahead of the WQC tour. Last year's tour estimate was 392.7 million bushels. The May 2007 KASS estimate was 361 million bushels, with a final reported production of 283.8 million bushels.
Mud slows tour Fourteen cars with 63 crop scouts surveyed and evaluated the potential of the Kansas wheat crop. The total number of field stops was 388, down slightly from past years due to rain and very muddy conditions in some areas. "This crop has some upside potential. The later planted wheat is beginning to catch up, and when the sun ever shines, should make great strides," said Ben Handcock, WQC executive vice president. "I believe the crop will improve from week to week, and had (the KASS report) been out the same week as we were, their estimate may have been higher." The best characteristic of the crop is the apparent lack of disease, Handcock said. "We saw almost none of the rust that was reported ahead of the tour, and almost nothing else that would detract from this crop. I think the only thing it needs is sunshine, like almost every place else in the Plains states," he said. "If we go directly from 60 to 90 degrees, however, that spring emerged wheat may take a big hit. I really have no idea how much of it there is, but there did not appear to be a huge amount. It has plenty of moisture except in the western areas, and I think it is too late to help them a lot in those areas."
Tour in stages The tour is conducted in stages, beginning and ending each day together at designated points while fanning out throughout the day to survey the crop. The tour began at Manhattan, Kan., where participants attended a brief training and tour overview session the first evening before hitting the road in the morning. The tour's first full day saw cars traveling on six different routes from Manhattan to Colby, Kan. "The wheat seemed pretty good in all areas of this route. It was obvious that the crop was behind normal maturity in most areas, and fall planted wheat that did not emerge until this spring, was found in a lot of places," Handcock said. "This would be the concern for the Kansas crop this year in areas where this phenomenon occurred. Will this wheat have a decent yield, or will it be too hot when head filling time approaches?" On day two, cars traveled from Colby to Wichita, going into far western Kansas counties. Two cars went farther south into Oklahoma. "As we knew beforehand, the far west and south are in the drought areas of Kansas. The worst areas appeared to be in the far southwestern corner and correspondingly south into the western Oklahoma Panhandle," Handcock said. "The stands were much poorer in the southwest, and yields responded accordingly. As the cars moved east toward Wichita, the yields improved dramatically."
Oklahoma offers data One field, in the Alva, Okla. area, was estimated at 108 bushels per acre. Many yields in that area were estimated above 90 bushels. "This may be the best crop this area has ever experienced," Handcock said. Day three concluded the trip with the cars traveling from Wichita to Kansas City. "We lost two cars and several people in Wichita and made 31 stops in a muddy and time-shortened day," Handcock said. "This smaller wheat production area does not have a large impact on statewide averages, but is usually a fairly high yielding area, though there was a lot of freeze damage in this area in 2007." Unlike past years, scouts from Colorado or Nebraska did not join the 2008 tour. Oklahoma officials gave a report in Wichita that listed 5.7 million acres planted with a yield estimate of 32.4 bushels per acre and total production of 157 million bushels. Oklahoma produced 98 million bushels last year. "Please keep in mind that this whole tour is a snapshot in time, regarding the potential of this crop," Handcock said. "Weather will continue to have more influence than anything else on the final outcome."
Lots of first-timers About one half of the tour was comprised of first-timers. "The value of this tour is the people you meet and the friends you make and keep in contact with over the years to come," Handcock said. "The production number really takes a backseat in the whole process, although I believe we did a fine job again and am proud of our effort. This is truly a diverse group of really nice people." The group will learn who's won the $48.00 in the pool of guesses about the 2008 hard winter wheat crop Aug. 12, when the National Agricultural Statistics Service releases its final statistics for the size of the crop. Larry Dreiling can be reached by phone at 785-628-1117 or by e-mail at ldreiling@aol.com. 5/19/08 Date: 5/15/08
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