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The art of speculationBy Seymour Klierly For those making their living inside the Beltway, the constant need to have the most up-to-date information is like an addiction. Whether you're an elected official, a lobbyist, or a staff member, having the inside track on a political situation is like holding a winning lotto ticket. Your colleagues all want to know what you know, and they will come back to you in future situations to see if you can get the inside scoop yet again. Because of this desire to be "in the know," folks in the Beltway constantly speculate on what is happening or what is going to happen next. If your prediction comes true, who knows, maybe someone else buys your next round. The Beltway is full of issues for folks to speculate on these days. Take your pick; the economy, energy, health care, taxes, farm bill, etc. Even with all of these choices, I think I'll stick to the farm bill. The main point of speculation surrounding the farm bill is whether or not President Bush is serious about his veto threat. Some believe he is, others believe he isn't. However, no matter what they think, everyone is talking about it, including the House and Senate committee chairmen. House Chairman Peterson has been rather busy since Congress left in December. Over the last month he's met anywhere between five and seven times with Acting U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Chuck Conner to try to reach some middle ground with the White House. It is rumored that those talks didn't go so well and that Conner isn't giving any ground on increased revenue for the bill and payment limits. Peterson's hope may have been to broker a backroom deal with the White House then pressure a conference committee to move quickly. Now that such a deal appears outside of Peterson's reach, he's calling for an open conference committee process. If, and this is a big "if," a conference committee is selected, then begins meeting over the next few weeks, and reaches some sort of agreement, the White House will be under immense pressure to back off of their veto stance. Even though Chuck Conner and by that time, likely new Secretary Ed Schafer, may oppose the final bill, the decision rests with President Bush. He's not been shy about vetoing bills over recent months; however, this would be the first bill that is aimed at what could be the one and only constituency that still supports him . . . rural America. If the stars align and Congress passes a farm bill, it will likely fall short of a veto proof margin. If that is the case and Bush upholds his staff's veto threat, watch out. This is the time when those Beltway junkies would begin speculating whether or not President Bush will go through with the veto. I'll refrain from adding to the fray. There is a lot that must happen before Bush has the opportunity to put either his pen or his veto stamp to a farm bill. First, Congress must actually convene a conference committee. Why they haven't yet, is another topic suited for colorful speculation. 1/28/08 Date: 1/23/08
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