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Just a scoop full(Jan. 16)--Most all of us cattlemen are confused. There's always that million dollar question "What do you think is going to happen?" The grain market is the biggest item that most all of us are watching. Interesting enough I am told there is a lot of grain piled outside, toward the north. Two years ago most considered we had more than enough wheat around--whether we raised anything for the next several years. To me we are at a point that most anything could happen. I see several feeders coming to the auction that owners seem to want to sell even though they will lose money. With the lack of wheat to be pastured out and with the price of grain a lot are giving up. Fat cattle prices fell on the futures this past week. On Jan. 3, February fat cattle futures had a high of $96.92 per cwt. and by Jan. 15, those futures had a low of $90.45 per cwt. I can see why feeder cattle prices should be affected, but fat cattle prices shouldn't have any setback from grain going up. I think most cattlemen were depressed over the negative feed prices but mostly traded got negative on the whole cattle complex in sympathy from higher grain. As of Wednesday we were at a leveled off price on cattle. There is a lot of volatility in cattle and grain. A year ago this time we had 10,000 more on the show list with fat cattle around $94 and $95 per cwt. I do not like to be negative. But with the huge amount of money most cattlemen borrow--it gets your attention when we make these big moves in the cattle and grain market. For the long term higher grain will definitely take pounds off of fat cattle and most will be more willing sellers. After rolling the fat cattle price to $91--a person has to keep adjusting the price he will give for these feeders. Particularly these plain cattle that will feed high and bring back a fat price in the $70s or $80s--some of these cattle could get very cheap. As when grain was cheap--it wasn't as big a deal if those cattle didn't feed as well as some because the cost of gain was still cheaper than what you could expect for fat prices. I talked to one customer of mine who was explaining that there was some profit taking going on. I think he was talking about the futures. I assured him that I was fully aware of the profit taking going on in the cattle business as my billfold was empty. Regardless of the cattle market, keep a sense of humor. It is a lot better to see a grown man laugh than it is to see him cry. I've been avoiding my banker for the past month. There's no reason for both of us to be depressed. Editor's Note: Jerry Nine, Woodward, Okla., is a lifetime cattleman who grew up on his family's ranch near Laverne, Okla. 1/28/08 Date: 1/23/08
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