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KLA members told to stay involved in the climate change discussionBy Doug Rich
Dennis Avery, Hudson Institute, had this advice for cattlemen attending the Kansas Livestock Association (KLA) annual meeting. "Keep asking, where is the warming," Avery said. "There is no evidence of man-made warming of our climate." Speaking at the opening session of the annual meeting held in Wichita, Kan., Dec. 4 and 5, Avery outlined why he thinks the current warming trend is part of a natural cycle and not a man-made event. Avery said the earth is going through a naturally occurring 1,500-year global warming cycle. This moderate natural warming and cooling cycle was discovered in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores in the 1980s. According to these studies, global temperatures will increase by 1 to 3 degrees centigrade for centuries at a time and then drop 2 to 6 degrees for centuries more. The warming phase of this cycle can last up to 750 years. Oxygen isotopes in these ice cores reveal the air temperature when the ice layer was formed. According to Avery, no species have been lost to global warming yet. Most species have been through rapid climate change hundreds of times and survived. Some groups are particularly concerned about polar bears right now. "Polar bears have been on this planet for at least 120,000 years and have survived warm temperatures during that time," Avery said. Sunspots had been predicting a global cooling since 2000 with a ten-year lag. Avery said that sunspots have been shown to have a 79 percent correlation with the earth's thermometer since 1860. Sunspot activity and the temperature of the Pacific Ocean have more effect on global temperatures than man-made carbon dioxide emissions, Avery said. "Tree rings show us that Pacific Ocean cooling has meant global cooling for the past 400 years," Avery said. "This spring, NASA satellites showed the Pacific Ocean was entering a cool phase that normally lasts 25 to 30 years." Avery said, "We need to be more concerned about the next ice age than we do global warming." Even if a person does believe in global warming or global climate change, as it is now referred to, Avery is not convinced that biofuels are the answer. Avery said that this is the most dangerous time in history to expand biofuels. "We have put too much grain in our fuel tanks," Avery said. All available farm ground will be needed to feed a peak population of 8 to 9 billion affluent meat eaters and their pets. Avery said we would need to triple crop yields on prime land just to save the current wild lands. "Biofuels will need to be grown on converted acres by 2040 as food demand doubles," Avery said. "Save the poor land for nature and farm the best land for all you can get." Ending our addiction to oil would take hundreds of billions of gallons of biofuels per year, according to Avery. Yet corn ethanol produces a net of only 90 gallons of ethanol per acre. The political reality is that legislation is in the pipeline and the livestock industry will have to find a way to deal with it. Sara Hessenflow Harper, with the Clark Group, gave an update on climate change legislation. According to a Dec. 1, 2008 quote from Politico, "Today an entirely new war is under way. It is no longer about whether man-made climate change is real. It is about how aggressively and in what ways Americans should respond to that threat." Several pieces of legislation are under consideration. There is the Lieberman-Warner bill, the Dingell-Boucher bill, the Waxman Climate bill, and the Boxer Substitute bill. Each of them takes a slightly different approach to reducing CO2 emissions. Harper noted that Congressman Waxman (D-CA) unseated Congressman Dingell (D-MI) for chair of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Senator Barbara Boxer chairs the Senate Environmental and Public Works now without Senators Warner or Lieberman. The Lieberman-Warner bill allows GHG emitters to meet up to 15 percent of their required reductions by purchasing agricultural offsets. The Boxer Substitute, which is a re-write of the Lieberman-Waxman bill, provides a stronger role for EPA and limits the offset approval process. The Dingell bill allows trading, banking, and borrowing of emission allowance with no limits on trading and banking. How to handle offsets or whether to have offsets at all is a major issue. Harper said most environmental groups do not like the offset proposals; however, there is a world of difference even among the environmental groups on this issue. "The world of bad ideas on this issue is pretty big," Harper said President-elect Obama has promised to push through climate legislation. Harper said Obama is being pressured to tackle GHG emissions through the Environmental Protection Agency and the Clean Air Act. This would bypass Congress. Harper's advice for the KLA members was to be involved in the debate and make sure they have a seat at the table. "If you are not at the table, you are on the menu," Harper said. Doug Rich can be reached by phone at 785-749-5304, or by e-mail at richhpj@aol.com. 12/15/08 Date: 12/11/08
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