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Report: Okla economy outpacing national averagesOKLAHOMA CITY (AP)--Oklahoma job growth will be flat next year, but the state's employment picture will continue to be better than that of the nation, an Oklahoma State University economist predicted Nov. 18. Economist Mark Snead said in his 2009 economic forecast that personal income growth will continue to grow, but at a slower pace of less than 4 percent, compared to 6 percent or more in recent years. The state is approaching 95 percent of the national personal income level. While large job losses have been seen on the national front, Oklahoma should end 2008 with employment growth of about 1.1 percent. The oil and gas industry has helped keep Oklahoma relatively prosperous compared to the economic downturn seen in other states, but that's only part of the picture. "We are seeing broad-based growth," Snead said. "Oil and gas is giving us a little bit of a boost, but there is solid growth in every sector of the economy. Agriculture is providing a boost, Indian nations are providing a boost." "The story is that the entire state is on a similar economic cyle." The problems of the housing and mortgage industry have not been as pronounced in Oklahoma as elsewhere. Home prices did not appreciate here as much as elsewhere, so when the housing bubble popped, home foreclosures weren't as big of a problem. Snead predicted job growth of 0.2 percent in Oklahoma City next year. "All areas of Oklahoma City have been doing well, the suburbs, the downtown, the entertainment and medical districts," he said. "Tulsa is not quite as strong at the moment and a little more susceptible to weakness." He predicted job reductions of 0.2 percent in Tulsa next year. The one dark cloud Snead sees on the horizon is the falling price of oil. Crude oil prices have dropped 63 percent since reaching a record $147.27 a barrel in mid-July. Oil is now being traded in the mid-$50s. If it were to drop to $35 a barrel next year, it could take the steam out of Oklahoma's economy and lead to job reductions of 0.6 percent, Snead estimated. State Treasurer Scott Meacham said falling natural gas prices have reduced state revenue. He sees a flat budget year for 2009 and possible reductions in 2010. "My concern tends to be more about natural gas than oil," he said. "I don't feel as good about natural gas prices going forward. "We have a whole lot of supply, a lot in storage and not a very severe winter predicted," he said. "That means production declines and price declines also." 12/1/08 Date: 11/26/08
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