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Just a scoop full(March 26)--Feeder cattle numbers have slowed down to where most auctions have slipped to half the amount of numbers they were selling a month earlier. And it appears the numbers of feeders will get fewer than that. Basically, the only feeders that will show up at the auction for April and May will be ones that have been in a growing lot, with only a few coming off rye and wheat pasture. With all this being said, the majority of our feeders are already in the feedlot. Thus, I feel very friendly for fat cattle prices from October through December. Cattle feeders are at a point that they are going to have to start showing profit very soon in order to survive. Even if fat cattle do rally in price, it is possible that higher grains will not allow any profit for the cattle feeder. I do not like to think negative, but I am forced to think logically. With the lack of wheat pasture this past year and with the higher grain prices, these cattle in growing lots have not been profitable either. Particularly with the price available now on a feeder that has come out of a growing lot. I am not crying over spilled milk. I am simply like a lot of other cattlemen--I am tired of losing money. If grains stay high, I think there will be a definite adjustment on calf prices this fall. The incentive to grow these calves will not be there, if we stay convinced that we are going to be selling fat cattle at $90 per cwt. If our numbers on fats get short enough for the last quarter of the year--then perhaps we can rally this cattle market to an optimistic attitude rather than a depressed one. I would be the first to tell you that we cattlemen have very short memories. But, it is easier to remember when the bank account is empty. Editor's Note: Jerry Nine, Woodward, Okla., is a lifetime cattleman who grew up on his family's ranch near Laverne, Okla. 4/7/08 Date: 4/2/08
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