WQC tour reports Kansas average of 41.0 bushels

By Larry Dreiling

The 50th wheat Quality Council tour of the 2007 Kansas hard winter wheat growing areas concluded May 3, reporting a final average of 41.0 bushels per acre over 447 stops. This compares with a 2006 average of 37.3 bushels per acre over 435 stops.

Estimated planted acreage for the 2007 crop is 10.3 million acres. This is against 9.8 million acres in 2006.

The group of nearly 60 tour participants reported its findings at its traditional meeting site in the Roderick Turnbull Room at the Kansas City Board of Trade.

"Historically, the report of the group has tended to mimic the May report of the USDA," said Dave Green, director of quality control and laboratory services for ADM Milling Co., Overland Park, Kan.

Green's statement is important, since not only are tour participants shoehorned into the room, but also KCBT officials and traders. The report is traditionally given about 45 minutes after the market has closed. Once the word of the number comes out, the traders often leave to inform their clients how to react to the numbers for the next day's trade.

The big moment at the conclusion of the tour is when most of the participants give their personal predictions for the Kansas wheat crop. Everyone drops a dollar in a pool along with his or her prediction and whoever comes closest with his or her prediction to the August U.S. Department of Agriculture crop production report for the crop wins the pool.

This year 51 participants offered a prediction. The average of the estimates was 392.74 million bushels. The highest estimate was 501 million bushels. The low was 299.76 million bushels.

All cars on the tour started at Manhattan, Kan. Most observers noted that planting time dictated whether or not wheat in central Kansas was damaged by the Easter weekend freeze.

"We looked at two fields side by side. One totaled zero while another came out as a possible 42-bushel yield," one observer said. "It all depended on when the farmer planted his wheat."

They also noted that where there was damage, secondary tillers are beginning to emerge in a few cases.

One route, following from Geary through Dickinson, Saline, northern McPherson and northern Rice counties, was reported to have a great deal of freeze damage. However, there was potential for some improvement.

In one field of downed wheat, an observer said it "looked like a yellow shag carpet." While in another field, another observer said, "You can tell that those plants are trying to send shoots up out of that brown mat."

Most tour participants believe there is a lot to like with this year's crop beyond all the news about freeze damage in central Kansas. The U.S. 83 corridor some groups traveled the day prior to the announcement has some excellent potential for producing a great crop.

As other observers gave their reports it became clear, though, that freeze damage became more evident as the cars turned back east to Wichita.

At that point, Dr. Jim Shroyer, Extension agronomist at Kansas State University began to take over the dialogue among the tour participants to offer how all the things the other members of the tour have been seeing, from rust to powdery mildew to smut to brown stems could once again be signs of freeze damage.

"What many people might be seeing as things like nitrogen deficiency probably is really freeze damage from say, Pratt east this way," Shroyer said. "I think this year is different than 1997 because the crop has already deteriorated beyond repair."

As far as all that leaf rust goes, Shroyer added, "We're at normal but there's going to be more leaf rust ahead. By this time next week there will be considerable leaf rust. The planes should be flying (fungicide over the crops) for the next week. As a matter of fact, they should have flown last week."

"There is a lot of complexity in determining the extent and severity of this freeze," Shroyer said. "It's difficult enough to determine an accurate guess in a good year. It's another when a freeze and snow exacerbated the problem.

"Still, this has the potential for some of the best wheat I've seen in western Kansas for a long time. I've been doing this for 27 years," Shroyer said. "We're a long way from having it in the bin. Anything that happens from this point on is usually bad."

Larry Dreiling can be reached by phone at 785-628-1117 or by e-mail at ldreiling@aol.com.

5/14/07

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