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Trade the answer to sustaining demand

Terry Barr, chief economist and vice president of agriculture and trade policy for the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives, said meeting demand for U.S. corn while not impinging on other commodity segments will continue to be a challenge for U.S. agriculture. Barr addressed nearly 200 barley, corn and sorghum producers, as well as agribusiness and industry leaders at the U.S. Grains Council's 47th Annual Board of Delegates' meeting in Toronto, Canada, on July 24.

"This industry is challenged with meeting demand, while not dampening enthusiasm for exports," said Barr. "Right now we are engaged in a honeymoon with ethanol. It will not be long when we come back and ask: Where do we find demand? This will happen is the not-too-distance future. Likely a year or two."

Barr said producers have planted enough acres in corn this planting season to meet demand without negatively impacting other sectors. He said the agricultural industry got the "big increase needed" to prevent any sort of major market disruption. Now it's up to the harvest season to generate high yields. According to Barr, yields have to be in excess of 150 bushels per acre to minimize disruption in other commodity markets. Less than 150 bushels may cause problems, Barr said.

In light of increasing demand for corn-based biofuels, Barr said corn producers will have to continue sustaining the availability of feed stocks for ethanol, but at the same time continue to increase demand for their products to maintain profitability.

"Ultimately, trade is going to be the driver," said Barr. "To grow our domestic industry, we have to export. For the sake of all commodities, now is the time to maintain export markets that we will need in the very near future, and not count on solely on ethanol."

Date: 8/13/07


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