The election winds are changing

By Seymour Klierly

As we round the final curve of the midterm election calendar, members of both parties continue to hold their breath--and for opposite reasons. Democrats are seeing blue when looking at the ever-changing electoral map. Many areas that were once solidly red are popping up blue. For the same reasons, Republicans are wary of what appears to be a changing tide in voter sentiment.

From the House perspective, what were once solidly Republican districts now have the incumbents running for their political lives. Republicans, particularly House Republicans, have had a tough time over the past two years--much of it self imposed. The past few years are marked by ethics scandals by the likes of Congressman Duke Cunningham, R-CA, taking bribes for steering contracts to defense contractors and, of course, the Jack Abramoff debacle. The most recent blow is the Mark Foley, R-FL, page scandal involving inappropriate e-mails sent to young House pages, and more particularly, the House Republican Leadership's alleged mishandling of the situation. While that scandal alone will have less of an impact nationally than anticipated, it is an issue in a handful of races.

But the problems facing Republicans do not stop at the Ethics Committee door. The multiple scandals are certainly chinks in the armor, but the broader issues remain the situation in Iraq and the public's perception that the economy is in dire straits. The pundits claim the midterm elections will serve as a referendum on the president.

While the number of battleground states for Senate races changes on a weekly basis, the four that are consistently highlighted as the toss-ups with no clear winner include: Missouri, New Jersey, Virginia, and Tennessee. With only six seats shy of flipping Senate control to the Democrat Party, the tidal wave of change is becoming more plausible, when before the change was seen as unlikely.

The ability for House Democrats to pick up the 15 seats necessary to gain the majority is almost a forgone conclusion. With more races falling into the toss-up category than the lean-Republican or likely-Republican, the wind appears to be blowing in a new direction. What remains to be seen is not whether the Democrats take control but by how much.

What those in agriculture can be almost sure to expect is a change of leadership in the House, which means Congressman Colin Peterson, D-MN, will take the helm of the House Agriculture Committee. It also means that Connecticut Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro will control the purse as the Chair of the powerful House Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee. The thought alone is causing a shudder through the production agriculture industry. To round all this change out is California liberal, Nancy Pelosi assuming the gavel as House Speaker.

Make no mistake; the change in leadership will impact a farm agenda. Writing new farm bill or extending current law will be much more difficult.

Date: 10/25/06

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