By Larry Dreiling

The economic impact of water issues in northeastern Colorado was explored at a daylong conference held recently at Sterling.

Dennis Kaan, Golden Plains Area Director of Colorado State University Cooperative Extension and Jenny Thorvaldson, a CSU graduate student in agricultural and resource economics, delivered the keynote presentation.

Their presentation centered on the impacts of probable reduced irrigation acres in the lower South Platte River Basin. While agriculture makes up just 1 percent of economic demographic of the basin as a whole, the lower portion of the basin, particularly that part in Logan, Phillips and Sedgwick counties, see 38 percent of their economy being based in irrigated agriculture.

"Over 70 percent of the population in the basin lives along the Front Range. It's highly urbanized," Thorvaldson said. "We're hardly a blip on the radar screen economically. If you bring it into focus closer to this area, the economic impact of agriculture is a lot greater."

Declining acres

Research has shown that planted acres in the basin have been declining in 1998.

"We've seen pretty good declines even before the drought hit," Kaan said.

"Some other factors are influencing our cropping patterns other than drought."

Examining irrigated agriculture in the basin, Kaan said farmers are using more water-friendly practices than ever.

"We can see that declines in Wheat acreages have been offset by increases in spring-planted crops," Kaan said. "Conservation tillage and intensive cropping rotations really show an influence since the 1997 farm bill. There's more to it than just drought."

Thoraldson said that decline is coming from competing uses for water.

"It's only getting worse as the population continues to grow and urbanize," Thorvaldson said. "That will be driven by an additional 2 million residents projected to live in the basin by the year 2030. They will need an additional 400,000 acre-feet of water a year."

Despite the additional need for water by new residents, Thorvaldson says there are senior water rights owned by landholders in the lower portion of the basin that will create tension in demand for that water.

High value crops

"As it is now, 75 percent of the value of all Colorado crops comes from the irrigated sector," Thorvaldson said. "It just goes to show how important a secure supply of water is. Although agriculture is still dominant use for water in this part of the basin, we need to be prepared to understand the impact of deductions of water on rural communities."

Thorvaldson said there are two possible scenarios for the area if irrigated agriculture is reduced in the lower part of the basin--conversion to grass for pasture or converted to dryland agriculture.

"The question is what crops can be planted to replace these crops," Thorvaldson said. "Since all industries are connected to each other in some way, there are numerous impacts to the economy that will ripple through to places other than just the farmer."

Because of a loss of irrigated acres, farmers will purchase less seed and fertilizer. Feedlots in the area will have to find additional sources of grain, since there will be less grain grown in the area. There will be an impact of other support industries and a likely loss of jobs as people leave seeking better wages.

"The loss of irrigation in the lower basin could be huge," Thorvaldson said. "Basically, people who have higher skill sets and have their income diversified could likely recover from the loss."

Income loss scenario

Using economic modeling software, Kaan developed a scenario for lost income based on a 32,000-acre reduction for northeast Colorado. The scenario was developed to also include the five counties of the Republican River Basin in Colorado: Lincoln, Logan, Kit Carson, Washington and Yuma.

"The direct impact totals $12.8 million. That's the reduction in crop sales," Kaan said. "Indirect impact or the impact on suppliers to the farmer totals $149,000 and the induced impact or impact of lost wages of $45,000. That's a $12.9 million loss or 7.7 percent reduction in crop sales."

Kaan insisted this was snapshot of information with no downstream effects analyzed.

"We need to look at the local versus global effect of this," Kaan said. "We need to model more impacts on the economy and look at further adjustments in the labor force."

Other speakers included a legislative panel as well as Logan County Commissioner Greg Etl, who told of officials in Douglas County, Colo., seeking to lease Logan County land for the water rights and returning the water upstream via a pipeline.

"It would be a lease proposal," Etl said. "We're about ten years I guess before this happens. They would be leasing the water rights and using a quarter of the water themselves, leaving the rest to the farmer. From a county perspective, that would be better than buying the land outright.

Not going away

"This is an issue that is not going to go away and the reality is more large municipalities are going to be doing just this because they have the ability to raise tap fees in order to pay to do these things," Etl said.

The future of irrigated agriculture lies in conserving current resources, according State Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Yuma).

"What can we do to make the best use of the water we now have available to us," Gardner asked. "Are we doing enough in crop, implement and irrigation research to preserve those resources? We need to look at expanded storage facilities. We also need to use federal partnership dollars to meet the needs we have.

"That's dangerous ground, because every time we open the door to federal involvement, there's the risk that water may be taken away."

One thing rural Coloradoans should insist on is enough time to permit a transition from irrigated to dryland agriculture, according to State Sen. Greg Brophy (R-Yuma).

"People who reside in this area are creative enough to find ways to remain in this area and to keep income levels high," Brophy said. "Local people need to determine their own fate."

Larry Dreiling can be reached by phone at 785-628-1117 or by e-mail at ldreiling@aol.com.