Nebraska

It's easy to paint a picture of gloom for rural areas from broad population and economic statistics. However, a closer look reveals some positives that deserve attention, a University of Nebraska Rural Initiative study indicates.

Randy Cantrell, a University of Nebraska-Lincoln rural sociologist with Rural Initiative, said he got fed up with seemingly endless projections of doom for the Great Plains. While population losses, an aging population and declining birth rates are worrisome, they are not the entire story. Local successes that buck trends often are lost in broad demographic snapshots.

"Aggregate population data tends to mask things that are going differently (from the whole) so we don't see them," the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources researcher said. "If that difference is good, how do we support it or learn from it if we don't see it?"

To better understand localized trends, Cantrell analyzed U. S. Census and economic data for individual Nebraska communities and counties from 1990 to 2000. While some places certainly are struggling, he found others are growing, adding jobs and attracting educated working age people.

Cantrell's analysis revealed some positive trends that don't typically show up in aggregate information. For example, between 1990 and 2000:

--Nebraska's overall population grew 8.4 percent, proportionately the best growth rate in 80 years. Incorporated communities grew by an average of 12 percent while population in the state's open country shrunk 3 percent.

--Growth was fairly widespread compared to previous decades. Population increased in 40 counties and 288 incorporated communities.

--Larger places were more likely to grow but growing communities included a large number of smaller towns; 52 percent of Nebraska towns under 2,500 people grew.

--53 percent or 290 incorporated towns grew; growth exceeded 10 percent in 130 of these communities.

--Among counties with population declines, decreases in 90 percent of the counties were smaller than in the previous decade.

--The number of people ages 30-39 increased nearly 25 percent in towns under 2,500 people; it decreased 6 percent in towns of more than 5,000 people.

--Total wage and salary jobs increased in 63 of 93 Nebraska counties; 41 counties saw increases in excess of 10 percent.

--Increases in the number of residents with advanced degrees in 178 communities outside the state's metro areas exceeded the statewide increase of 30 percent.

"What this shows is that you can't paint every community in the state with the same brush even if it's imbedded in a region that is struggling," Cantrell said. It also dispels "two widely held myths" about rural places: That they can't attract educated people or people in their prime earning years.

Cantrell concluded that between 1990 and 2000, Nebraska's smaller communities significantly outperformed larger towns in attracting people in their prime earning years. Most of Nebraska rural counties have proportionably fewer people with advanced degrees but increases during the 1990s demonstrate some people are choosing to return home after college or move to small towns.

Roughly two-thirds of Nebraska counties saw increases in total wage and salary jobs during the 1990s, based on Bureau of Economic Analysis figures. Cantrell said job creation figures don't distinguish between full-and part-time jobs but provide evidence of economic activity.

"Population isn't the only measure of success," he said. "If you've gained people in the 30-40 age group and increased jobs, I have to conclude something is going right."

Even county numbers can be deceiving, Cantrell pointed out. "If a county lost population, we can't automatically conclude that this county is dying. If I look more closely, I see three communities that were able to add people in their prime earning years and have been creating jobs."

For example, five Dixon County towns saw increases in their labor forces despite countywide decline of more than 10 percent.

"Dixon County isn't dying. It's just in transition and becoming more associated with Sioux City, Iowa," he explained. Many Nebraska towns and counties are undergoing similar transitions.

Changes in agriculture, the economy and transportation will continue to challenge rural communities, he said. This study highlights places that are bucking broader trends. He's interested in further examining what contributes to these successes.

"I dispute the notion that rural places are heading in an endless spiral downward to nothing," he said. "Let's look closer before you start writing epitaphs for the state or a community."

The university's Nebraska Rural Initiative funded this study. The full report is available on the Web at http://ruralinitiative.nebraska.edu/externalpubs/964.