It's been called "The stampede that didn't happen."

When the Canadian border was reopened to imports last week, many feared there would be a mad rush of Canadian cattle into the U.S.

It didn't happen. Instead, one truckload of cattle crossed the border at Lewiston, N.Y. Others were in the process of submitting requests but that could hardly be called a "stampede."

The markets barely noticed the decision.

Why so little reaction? The simple fact is, the Canadian cattle industry doesn't need us anymore. The structure of the industry has changed so that they will simply continue to ship us the processed beef. They'll raise it and feed it on inexpensive feed, processes it and add all the value in their own country.

What's done is done.

When the Canadian border was closed two years ago, it caused much turmoil within the cattle industry. The two countries had become dependent upon each other's trade and when that went away, the industry changed.

What has happened as a result?

The Canadian cattle industry, who had become so dependent on U.S. markets, decided it was time they took care of themselves. Consequently, they stepped up bovine spongiform encephalopathy testing, endured terrible prices and stepped up feeding and slaughtering capacity.

With the border closing, we have created a formidable competitor to the north--one that is now ahead of us in many aspects. The new processing facilities are state-of-the-art. The tracability system is leaps and bounds ahead of us.

The problem is that the situation has not been put to rest. On July 27, the full hearing on a permanent injunction will be heard by U.S. District Judge Richard Cebull in Montana, the very judge that granted the temporary injunction keeping the border closed.

What will happen? Everyone will speculate, but no one knows.

What we do know for sure is that Canada will not go away.

Instead of competing with Canadian cattle imports on U.S. soil, we'll compete with their beef overseas. And that's where the stampede will happen--U.S. and Canadian representatives rushing to foreign buyers for a share of their beef business.

Holly Martin can be reached by phone at 1-800-452-7171 ext. 1806 or e-mail at hmartin@hpj.com.

Date: 7/20/05