Success in international trading negotiations, much like poker, requires a straight face and a close hand. And while the U.S. may lead the pack in trade and agriculture--Secretary Johanns' move to allow imports of Japanese beef back into the country appears as though we've showed all of our cards in the effort to reopen the Japanese market to U.S. beef.

Operating on the assumption that throwing the Prime Minister Koizumi a bone in the form of roughly 19,000 pounds of boneless beef would somehow expedite the opening up of Japan to American beef--Secretary Johanns' newest effort would allow whole cuts of beef that are born, raised and slaughtered in Japan. Clinging tightly to the international standards set by the OIE for animal import and food safety, Johanns has urged the Animal Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) and the Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS) to review the Japanese food inspection and safety standards to determine the integrity of their system. APHIS and FSIS both determined that it was "no longer necessary" to continue blocking beef imports from Japan--and as such, that the U.S. should resume the purchase of Japanese beef.

Now, APHIS and FSIS are experts in food safety and as Americans we rely heavily upon their work along with their partner agency of the Food and Drug Administration to ensure that our food and animals are safe. But when it comes to policy decisions--not to mention political strategy--it is important to take a second look at the new rule.

From an economic perspective, resuming the import of Japanese beef does not pose a significant threat to our domestic economy. Averaging $45 per pound, the beef coming into the U.S. from Japan will not have a significant impact on market prices here. Furthermore, the main destination of the Japanese beef will likely be more of the high-end market--including specialty grocers and restaurants.

Putting on a political hat, however, changes the scene dramatically. Since the U.S. and Japan signed the framework agreement to work towards beef trade based on internationally-recognized science, the U.S. has worked to reopen the Japanese market. Slow to act and stalled repeatedly by political dispute, the process of updating Japanese domestic BSE safety measures to those set by the OIE has been a difficult process.

Setting forth in good faith and with eager expectation, the American beef industry stood behind the U.S. negotiators and Secretary Johanns in achieving this end regarding beef trade. The problem is that it appears that the Japanese have taken an unprecedented amount of time to move through their regulatory process, resulting in frustrated lawmakers and industry representatives from the ranches, feedlots and packers across the country.

This new rule, while unarguably based on international science, seems to be a strategic misstep. With some uncertainty in the future parliamentary leadership in Japan, it seems almost irresponsible to reopen our markets.

Perhaps this latest move will give the Japanese an extra dash of courage that they might need to push through in allowing American beef back into their country. On the other hand, after the parliamentary elections in September, there is some question that the entire political process would have to be redoubled given new leadership and membership. If that is the case, then we've used up a significant bargaining chip--though well-intended as it may be.

Date: 8/24/05