ABERDEEN, S.D. (AP)--Some South Dakota agriculture experts are questioning the federal government's estimate that farmers will grow fewer soybeans this year.

In a report issued in late March, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said the highest declines in soybean plants would come in South Dakota and North Dakota. The department noted rapidly spreading Asian rust disease and low prices as among the reasons for the decrease.

In South Dakota, soybean plantings are expected to reach 4.05 million acres, down 2 percent from a year ago. The amount would be the smallest number of acres planted since 1998, the USDA said.

But some farm officials in the state wonder whether that will be the case.

"I don't actually think USDA has their pulse on South Dakota soybean production quite honestly," said Craig Haugaard, a producer marketing specialist for South Dakota Wheat Growers. "We haven't noticed the tendency to cut back on soybean acreage."

Haugaard said on a recent trip to North Dakota, he talked to farmers who planned to expand soybean plantings.

"The USDA number is the one we have to go by, but when the smoke clears, I'm guessing that number will be higher," he said.

Dale Curtis, Edmunds County Extension agent, said there are several reasons why some farmers may choose to stay away from the crop this season, although he hasn't heard many who plan on doing so.

"Weatherwise, we're looking at some dry conditions, and that may change some of the acreage," Curtis said.

Brown County Extension Agent Gary Erickson expects soybean planting to stay consistent throughout Brown County this year, but he can see why some farmers would shy away from planting the crop.

"Last year, there were areas of soybeans with drought and cool weather. That really hurt the yields," he said. "It just didn't work out very well to plant soybeans last year. Now with the insects and with the potential of soybean rust, it's making people look towards other crops."

Haugaard thinks the threat of soybean rust could help farmers in South Dakota and North Dakota.

"I'm willing to bet we'll see a price run if there's a scare somewhere else," he said. "When they first discover it in Iowa or something, prices will go up here."

Date: 4/21/05