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Rust could mean fewer soybean acres
By Mike McGinnis
DTN Staff Reporter
DES MOINES (DTN)--Now that Asian soybean rust has been confirmed in the U.S., reaction is mixed whether farmers, fearing crop loss from the devastating fungus, will cut back on soybean acres.
Nov. 10, the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed the identification of soybean rust disease found on two plots associated with a Louisiana State University research farm near Baton Rouge, La.
Up to this point, U.S. farmers that DTN has talked with have felt that soybean rust would arrive but there was no immediate need to be concerned about it (rust), mainly due to other pressing concerns such as soybean aphids, black stem-rot, soybean cyst-nematodes, and sudden death syndrome. Corn Belt farmers and experts contacted by DTN were divided on the extent of the impact of rust on soybean planting intentions. It's less clear what will happen in the northern Plains and in the cotton states, where growers have in recent years been substituting soybeans for other crops for economic reasons. Because soybean rust brings with it the likelihood of increased production costs, there are some farmers entertaining the idea of cutting back soybean acres, Dave Feltis, University of Illinois Extension educator of integrated pest management said.
"It's a good question, yes, you will see some guys say 'that's it I'm going to all corn' and others say 'I'll deal with it (soybean rust) when it comes." You'll have all kinds," Feltis said.
Feltis added, "Knowing how it got here and how it will spread will help some farmers determine their decisions on planting."
Jon Kophamer, a Morrison, Ill., farmer, said his crop rotation of 1,800 acres of corn and 1,800 of beans will change as a result of soybean rust being found in the U.S.
"This year I cut back to just 700 acres and next year I'll drop to maybe 250 acres of soybeans," Kophamer said. I've been cutting bean acres back the last few years because corn yields went up but not beans."
Kophamer suggested growing soybean for $5 a bushel is not enough money.
"This finding of rust could mean tying up another $30 per acre in chemicals to spray for rust, I can't see that, it doesn't figure, Kophamer said."
Billy Sheppard, a soybean producer from Louisiana, Mo., said his crop rotation won't hinge on the finding of the rust fungus but for others it might.
"We have reduced bean acres by 15 percent but for reasons other than rust, we will just be preventative in its treatment," Sheppard. "I think mid-size farmers will do major switching to corn. There will be guys run scared on this."
Sheppard added, "Typically, it will be how aggressive a farmer will be on spraying for it (rust). If it's there you will have to monitor your fields. Being from Missouri, if it (rust) gets to Arkansas I would be going into a preventative treatment mode. You better be prepared for it."
Mark Muench, a northwest Iowa farmer doesn't plan to cut back on soybean acres but hopes the fungal disease remains a southern U.S. problem.
"I'm concerned about it but I won't make any radical changes to my crop rotation. If there is no incentive on the price that could change things maybe," Muench said.
Muench added, "If I'm a farmer that has to spend another $50-$60 an acre on beans because of rust, we could lose acres on the fringes of the (main crop areas)."
When asked about planting corn-on-corn, Muench said he wasn't a big fan of that rotation because of the costs of nitrogen, fertilizer, and more moisture is needed compared to a corn/soybean rotation.
Last year, the Iowa farmer reserved a supply of fungicide to treat soybean rust if it were to arrive. "I had it and I'll do it again next year, Muench said."
Michael Fritch, a central Iowa farmer, agreed that soybean rust will not cause rotation changes in his operation.
"I don't see any acreage switching. We've just heard of this, let's wait and see where it's (rust) actually at and how widespread," Fritch said. "There is no need to panic."
USDA assessment teams will be dispersed within the next 24 hours to assess the situation and conduct surveillance to determine the extent of the disease, according to a United Soybean Promotion Board (USB) press release.
"While soybean rust is new to the United States, it is not new throughout the world." USB Chairman Criss Davis, a soybean farmer from Shullsburg, Wis., said in the release. "Like farmers in other rust-infected countries, U.S. soybean farmers will adjust and take the necessary steps to manage the disease, and the U.S. soybean industry will survive."
Alan Karkosh, chairman of the Iowa Soybean Promotion Board (ISPB) and grower from Hudson, Iowa, is not going to get overly worried about soybean rust, according to a press release.
"It's just something we need to be looking ahead at," Karkosh stated. "Weather conditions will have to be right for it to hit Iowa. We'll have to have the right environment to get it here each year, but it's just one more thing we'll have to be aware of as we scout our fields each summer."
Meanwhile, there are farmers who remain optimistic the soybean rust news will spark a price boost for soybeans. In that event, the farmers who do continue planting soybeans would relish in being in the bean market at the right time.
"I like to do the opposite of what others are doing," Sheppard sad. "If the majority of guys switching from beans to corn is significant, the price of beans should go up high enough that even though with the damage you might get from rust, with the few beans out there it should pay off."
Date: 11/23/04
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