| ||||
|
|
Wheat crop estimated at 355 million bushels
By Doug Rich
and Larry Dreiling
The Kansas winter Wheat crop is estimated at 355 million bushels, down from last year's crop of 480 million bushels, according to participants of the recently concluded 2004 Wheat Quality Council hard red winter Wheat tour.
At the tour's final meeting, held at its traditional location of the Rod Turnbull Room at the Kansas City Board of Trade, 47 of the 54 industry representatives who made the three-day tour delivered estimates ranging from 288 million to 430 million bushels.
Average yield was calculated at 37.4 bushels per acre based on results from 453 field samples. That total consisted of 202 field stops on the first day of the tour, 205 stops on the second day, and 46 stops on the third and final day.
This was below last year's tour average of 38.8 bushels per acre from 416 stops. The 2004 U.S. Department of Agriculture prospective plantings estimate for the 2004 Kansas winter Wheat crop is 9.9 million acres.
Last year, the tour figured the crop at 364 million bushels, which was followed up by a USDA May 2003 estimate of 388 million. Due to favorable moisture and cool growing weather, the USDA eventually adjusted that figure up to 480 million bushels.
The WQC assists the coordination of tours through Colorado, Nebraska and Oklahoma as well as managing the Kansas tour. The initial Colorado estimate was 60 million bushels, down from an actual 77 million bushels in 2003.
The Colorado projection, based on an estimated 2.3 million acres, is expected to yield 28 bushels per acre. Last year's tour estimated the Colorado Wheat crop at 81 million bushels. The 2003 Colorado Wheat crop brought in 77 million bushels.
Nebraska estimators pegged that state's crop at 76 million bushels with a yield of 38 bushels per acre, below the actual total of 83.7 million bushels last year and the 2003 tour guess of 87.4 million bushels.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma estimators currently project their 2004 winter Wheat crop at 165 million bushels, down from 179 million in 2003. A more thorough state Wheat tour was to be conducted with a formal estimate May 5. Last year, the tour estimated the Oklahoma Wheat crop at 172.8 million bushels.
Some of the estimators enter a $1 per guess pool; with the person whose guess comes closest to the Aug. 1 USDA estimate of the crop winning the pool.
Even though the group's aim is to project the final crop output, tour data dating back to the 1970s indicates a high correlation between the tour's estimate and the USDA May forecast, rather than the USDA's final figure. Over the past five years, the tour estimate has been within 25 million bushels or less from the May USDA forecast.
Last May, Kansas had ideal weather that stimulated a Wheat crop that was in desperate need of moisture. Although much still remains to be determined by this year's May and early June weather, veteran tour participants point out that the crop's potential is a bit more limited after the crop began with a poor start following emergence problems in the fall.
The northwest corner of Kansas was pinpointed with the most problems this year as extreme dryness is seen leading to high abandonment in that area. Severe drought conditions persist from Hays, Kan., north and west into Colorado and Nebraska.
That leads to a big question over this year's crop: How many Wheat acres eventually will be abandoned?
"I was a little bit surprised that there was not more already abandoned," said Eldon Thiessen, state statistician of the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service, who added he traveled across the state six weeks ago and found many fields where the Wheat had not emerged at all.
Based on that trip, he expected to see more acres abandoned during his three days on the annual Wheat tour.
"Farmers are at that point when they have to make that decision," Thiessen said. "We do not have quite the potential this year that we had last year at this time."
One of those producers who already made that decision is Ray Crumbaker, a member of the Kansas Wheat Commission who farms near Brewster, Kan. He told the tour during its April 27 stopover in Colby, Kan., that his insurance adjuster had told him earlier in the day that any Wheat that emerged this spring was to be "zeroed" out as a loss.
"They have been told it will not get a head and not make grain," Crumbaker said. "Originally I estimated that I would leave 40 percent of my planted acres. Since meeting with my adjuster, I have since upped that to 50 percent. That means I will tear up 50 percent of my Wheat crop. In my area, I'd say that would be on the high side."
Crumbaker said a producer southwest of him would take an 85 percent loss on his crop and that a Colby area producer told him he was planning a 75 percent loss. He told the group that the Goodland-Sharon Springs area was likely the worst area for Wheat losses.
It's become quite typical in the last few years that Wheat conditions improve as the tour moves eastward.
"As always there is some pretty good Wheat in the south central part of the state," said Ben Handcock, executive director of the Wheat Quality Council. "As we went north and west, where it has not rained for two to three years, we saw some stands that were just really thin." He estimated that those fields would yield 20 to 25 bushels per acres and that they would not be abandoned. "Then we saw fields where about one-third of the field came up last fall and about two-thirds came up this spring. The Wheat in those fields probably will not head out and it will be abandoned."
In 2003 central Kansas harvested 55 percent of the state's crop, with nearly 34 percent coming from the western third and about 11 percent from the eastern third.
"I thought the crop would be better than this," Handcock said, noting that all of the cars on this year's Kansas tour carried a soil probe. "In most areas I was only able to get my soil probe into the ground about two to three inches. This crop is living off of topsoil moisture, but can improve dramatically with rain."
Dave Hilferty, president of the Nebraska Wheat Growers Association, toured Cheyenne County, Neb., the top wheat-producing county in his state. A Grant, Neb., producer, Hilferty expressed the surprise many on the tour saw when they went into fields they believed had good stands--at least from the roadside.
"If you get out of the car and walk in the fields, you'd see the stands were a little thinner than you'd expect," Hilferty said. "We were so dry this spring that the crop just didn't stool out just right. There's going to be some thin wheat, but there still is some potential there."
Paul Jackson, with the Oklahoma Wheat Commission and a producer in Apache, Okla., said that because the crop has matured faster this year the harvest will begin much sooner than usual. He estimates Wheat cutting in southwest Oklahoma will most likely begin May 10, one of the earliest harvest dates in about 40 years.
Because the crop was further along during the mid-April drop in temperatures, some freeze damage occurred. Losses of about 10% to 15% have been seen portions of western Oklahoma. Very little freeze damage was found in western Kansas.
The USDA is scheduled to forecast 2004 winter Wheat output May 12.
Lisa Kallal of Oster Dow Jones/DTN contributed to this report. Senior Field Editor Larry Dreiling can be reached by phone at 785-628-1117 or by e-mail at ldreiling@aol.com. Senior Field Editor Doug Rich can be reached by phone at 785-749-5304 or by e-mail at richhpj@aol.com.
Date: 5/6/04
Copyright 1995-2008. High Plains Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved. Any republishing of these pages, including electronic reproduction of the editorial archives or classified advertising, is strictly prohibited. If you have questions or comments you can reach us at High Plains Journal 1500 E. Wyatt Earp Blvd., P.O. Box 760, Dodge City, KS 67801 or call 1-800-452-7171. Email: webmaster@hpj.com
 
| |||||||||||||||||||
