Japan waits for U.S. BSE test
By Richard Hanson
DTN Tokyo Correspondent
TOKYO (DTN)--Experienced veterinarians never quite get used to a screening test, called "elisa" in Japan, that checks for bovine spongiform encephalopathy, no matter how many they've seen turn out to really be BSE.
"There is nothing to do but wait," said one government vet who has seen millions of tests in Japan's "test-all" policy. So far all those tests turned up just 118 potentially positive BSE cases in Japan and only nine positive--or 11, depending on which test the cows passed--BSE cases.
That is one reason why Japan has taken, for the moment, a sympathetic view of the announcement June 25 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture that America had found a cow on which BSE tests were inconclusive.
USDA followed diplomatic channels, which have be beefed up in recent bilateral negotiations, by informing senior officials of Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a working group that was about to depart for Fort Collins, Colo., for a round of talks with their U.S. counterparts. USDA also contacted Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and the Cabinet Office's Food Safety Commission, which has a representative at the talks as an observer.
MAFF's immediate reaction was blunt. If the U.S. case turns out to be a cow with BSE, Japan will request a detailed report to be presented at the third and final working group meeting in Tokyo in late July. After that, negotiations will return to the senior official level.
Japan's scientific community has opined that more cases of BSE will be found as more cows are tested. It's a matter of numbers--the more thorough the testing, the more cases that might be found.
Japan's "test-all" policy was a political decision made immediately after the first case of BSE was found there in September 2001. It was aimed at calming panicky consumers who eventually returned to beef consumption with all domestic beef certified as having been tested for BSE.
Beef industry officials in Tokyo said the current flap is an opportunity to break through a USDA ban on allowing U.S. meat companies to test their own cattle so they can sell to the Japanese. MAFF officials said they will allow such imports only if the USDA puts its own verification stamp on such exports.
The precedent for such a system was created last summer when a Beef Export Verification (BEV) system was created to assure banned Canadian beef would be not be mixed with U.S. beef exports to Japan. The ban on all U.S. beef in December made that a moot point.
The U.S. revealed its first BSE case in Washington state Dec. 23, which triggered a near-worldwide ban on exports of all U.S. beef and beef products. So far, only a few countries have partially lifted their bans.
The most dramatic loss for U.S. beef producers was the Japanese market, which was promptly closed at a loss of about $1.2 billion in annual U.S. beef sales to its No. 1 market. What followed was one of the most bizarre episodes in bilateral agriculture trade relations.
After two hastily called meetings in Tokyo--soon after the ban and again in late January--the U.S. and Japan had virtually no direct official discussions over Japan's beef import ban until late March and April.
At that juncture, intervention by U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney during an official visit to Japan led to the creation of the working group.
Even without the specter of a second U.S. BSE case, the prospects of moving U.S. beef to Japan will take time. That frustrates Japan's efforts to break the ban by the U.S. and several other countries, on Japanese beef.
Farm officials figure if the talks are successful and a second BSE case proves benign, the earliest U.S. beef might arrive in Tokyo eateries will be in 2005. The ban on U.S. beef imports will simply remain in place if the second case tests positive.
Those tests are being done at USDA's National Veterinary Laboratory in Ames, Iowa.
U.S. and Japan beef debate could bog down again over the beef issue if the mystery cow--which has not been identified in any way publicly--tests positive.
What the working group is trying to do is set standards for beef safety that will be scientifically and politically acceptable in international beef trade.
Establishing such standards, which will also be compatible with other international institutions, is a logical move for U.S. and Japanese negotiators.
Other beef competitors have their own plans for beef trade with Japan.
BSE-free Australian cattle feeders plan to increase the volume of grain-fed beef exported to Japan by 20 percent to just more than 130,000 metric tons in 2005, up from 111,000 tons in 2003. Aussie beef is growing in popularity in Japan because of its marbling, which is the result of feeding cereal to cattle. According to the Australian Lot Feeders' Association, the country shipped 2.1 million head of grain-fed cattle in 2003, with about half bound for Japan.
With shipments from the U.S. suspended, Australian beef is estimated now to account for nearly 90 percent of beef imports to Japan and 40 percent of the country's total beef consumption, according to the newspaper Nihon Keizai Shimbun.
Date: 7/12/04
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