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Window closing on Doha Round
OTTAWA--There is no chance for a successful conclusion to the Doha round of the World Trade Organization talks before the expected closing date of 2004, said Canada's chief agricultural negotiator to the WTO at the Canada Grains Council and Grain Growers of Canada symposium Dec. 9.
The window for resolution of the Doha round's agricultural issues will soon close, said Steve Verheul of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, citing the upcoming U.S. election and the need for a new WTO chair as primary reasons.
The Doha mandate on agriculture calls for significant improvements to market access, a lowering all forms of export subsidies, and for substantial reductions to trade distorting domestic support, all with the aim of creating more multi-lateral world trade. However, at the last meeting in Cancun, Mexico, in September talks fell apart.
There have been no meetings of agricultural ministers since Cancun, said Verheul. While the WTO "has been discussing some sticking points... so far there has been no real indication of any flexibility."
At the upcoming WTO meeting in Geneva on Dec. 15, Verheul does not expect to see much more than a report from the chair of the council. The current chair will step down in February, 2004, starting a long, drawn-out process of appointing a new chair which must be approved by the 148 countries involved. The upcoming U.S. election will also hinder movement on Doha, as the U.S. will be unlikely to make any movements on cutting subsidies during an election year, said Verheul. While Doha will take longer than expected, Verheul said there is the potential for a better deal in the long run.
The process will likely be postponed until early 2005, but Verheul thinks all the countries involved will eventually come back to the table.
The EU will come back because they want recognition for recent steps they've made towards reducing subsidies. The U.S. has been focusing on bilateral agreements with other countries, but Verheul said the U.S. needs to come back to the WTO in order to go further, as the WTO is the only option available for the U.S. to create deals with Japan and most of Europe.
Developing countries, with high subsidies, will also "only make gains at the WTO," said Verheul. He didn't think the developing countries would get everything they were after, but the delay allows them to come back with a "more realistic approach."
As far as Canada is concerned, Verheul said the postponement of talks on agriculture allows Canada some time to think about what the potential changes will mean to the Canadian industry.
Date: 1/8/04
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