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What are the REAL chances
of you dying from vCJD?
By Jeff Caldwell
Ever since the U.S. bovine spongiform encephalopathy case surfaced, you've undoubtedly seen the mainstream media coverage of the disease' arrival to our country.
You may also have heard animal rights groups speaking out against our cattle industry and officials for their handling of the case, with further fuel for their fire in efforts to convince the world of the evils of eating beef and other meat.
One of the first things I learned in college about the profession of journalism was this catchy little phrase: "If it bleeds, it leads." Basically, this self-explanatory phrase dictates the marquee content in mainstream media. Supposedly, this satiates the basic human curiosity for things of this nature.
So, as news trickled throughout the nation of the BSE case, this principle took over. What used to be referred to as a "brain-wasting" disease is now, in the eyes of the mainstream media consumer, a disease that "eats holes in the brain." These stories are being written by good, but essentially uninformed, mainstream reporters, one of whom recently asked Ron DeHaven, U.S. Department of Agriculture chief veterinarian about how many "tons of cows" would be infected.
This naive over-dramatization of BSE, combined with the frequently called-upon statistic that "more than 120 people" have died of the human variant of BSE, Creutzfeld-Jacob Disease, has spawned a new level of fear for something that has been around for years. And, if you've watched 10 seconds of television since Dec. 23, I'm sure you've seen that video clip of the BSE-afflicted cow, slipping around and falling like an amateur figure skater. Over, and over, and over.
Animal rights groups, like the astute members of the People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, are having a heyday. If you go to the web address www.beef.com, purposefully named nearly identical to the web address of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association (www.beef.org), you'll first see the depiction of a gas mask, then the slogan "It's mad to eat meat." Here's a small excerpt of the textual portion of the website: "...The disease eats holes in the brain. In humans, it initially causes memory loss and erratic behavior, and over a period of months, its victims gradually lose all ability to care for themselves or communicate, and eventually, they die. So far, more than 120 people in Europe have died from nvCJD."
Scary, huh?
Let's look at the numbers. To date, 120 people have died from BSE's human variant, Creutzfeld-Jacob Disease, in Europe. While this is tragic for those individuals and their families and friends, the fact this figure is cited by animal rights groups and others has led me to look into a few other mortality statistics, all courtesy the National Safety Council.
During the year 2000, 650 people in the U.S. died following a "fall involving bed, chair, other furniture." The odds of this happening to you or I, in any given year, are 432,548 to one. So, along the same lines of those people saying we shouldn't eat beef because of BSE, we should also avoid any furniture in our homes.
Also during 2000, 327 people died of "accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed." Odds of this happening to you or I? Precisely 841,914 to one. So, for the love of God, don't sleep in your bed! You better sleep on the couch. Wait...the chances of your couch killing you are greater than your bed. You better not do that, either.
In addition, NSC figures show 55 people died in 2000 from "contact with hot tap-water," making your chances of this fatality exactly 5,005,564 to one. So, you better just go disconnect your water heater right now, before it strikes you dead!
So, following the logic of animal rights groups and the likes, you certainly shouldn't own a water heater, bed or any other furniture, in addition to refraining from eating beef because of BSE. That way, you'll live a long, happy life. Unless, of course, you're like those 116 people who died in 2000 from "ignition or melting of clothing or apparel."
In 2000, the population of Great Britain, where nearly all of the vCJD deaths occurred, was 59,755,700. In the same year, the population of the U.S. was 281,421,906. When extrapolating the mortality figures so frequently drawn upon by animal rights groups and others, it can be projected that, if there was a vCJD infection rate in the U.S. similar to that in the UK, this would mean 565 people would die from vCJD. Therefore, your chances of dying of vCJD would be 498,091 to one, provided millions of cattle become infected with BSE. Yet, to date, we've found only a single case of BSE in the U.S. As a result, this ratio of probability is multiplied several hundred thousand-fold.
So, your chances of drowning in hot tap water while falling out of your recliner as your clothing goes up in flames are more likely than you contracting and dying from vCJD in the U.S.
Next time you see a mainstream news report about BSE, or hear anything from an animal rights activist regarding your vulnerability of succumbing to the disease, think about the real chances.
If it bleeds, it may lead, but that doesn't guarantee it is based on the facts.
Jeff Caldwell can be reached by phone at 620-227-1805, or by e-mail at jcaldwell@hpj.com.
Date: 1/15/04
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